Now, more than ever, I’m constantly being asked about the current real estate market. Everyone is hearing something different depending on the source of the information. Some signs of a cooling market continue to persist in the Phoenix area real estate market, according to the latest ARMLS data from Phoenix Realtors.

Why does that matter: After over two years of watching our inventory plummet and home prices shoot up, buyers have been waiting a long time for some relief.

Yes, but: Costs for borrowers have increased, thereby squeezing homebuyer budgets and causing sales to slow way down, according to a recent Phoenix Realtors analysis.

What’s happening: “We’re returning to a more normal, stable market with more even supply and demand,” said Andrea Crouch, president of Phoenix Realtors.

• At the moment, buyers have more homes to choose from and competition has softened. But the jump in mortgage rates has kept some potential buyers out of the market, Crouch said.

Of note: In 2020, Phoenix households needed an income of at least $41,855 annually to spend 30% of their monthly earnings on a typical home mortgage payment, Zillow found.

• Here in 2022, you needed to earn at least $85,618.
• A monthly mortgage payment is considered reasonable if buyers spend no more than 30% of their earnings on housing.

The numbers: Home inventory jumped 136.7% compared to this time last year, per Phoenix Realtors’ market activity report for the week ending Sept. 24.

• Meanwhile, homes under contract are down 61% year-over-year.
• The median sales price increased still 10.6% year-over-year, but it’s dropped in recent months.
• For example, in May, the median sales price was $510,000 and in August it was $475,000.

Sellers aren’t seeing full price or above asking price offers on their homes now either. On average, homes sold for 98.1% of the list price in August 2022.

• At this time last year, homes were selling for 101.6% of the listing price.
• About half of Phoenix-area sellers lowered their asking price in July. This hasn’t happened in what feels like forever!

We are seeing homes sit on the market longer, as well. In August 2022, homes sold in 41 days on average, compared to 28 days in August 2021.

What’s next: The housing market is experiencing a CORRECTION — NOT a crash, Crouch said.

• This winter, Crouch expects to see even more listings, along with more cautious buyers.

~ Patti Crowley

The start to 2022 has been interesting! The rise of mortgage rates shocked everyone, while housing inventory remained stagnant for the most part. While I can’t say for certain how the second half of 2022 will look, here are a few trends we just might see.

1. Mortgage rates will stay higher, but increases should taper off

Mortgage rates have gone up surprisingly since the beginning of the year. That’s mostly due to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. While the Fed doesn’t set consumer interest rates, its actions commonly influence them. And with more rate increases expected for the year, consumers should expect mortgage borrowing to remain expensive throughout 2022.

Will we see the same jump in rates moving forward this year? Not necessarily. Right now, mortgage rates are sitting at their highest level in 13 years. They might continue to rise a bit, but it’s doubtful that they’ll climb at the same pace as they did from the start of the year until now.

2. Housing inventory increasing

Housing inventory is already starting to go up. At this point, sellers are less likely to use pandemic-related uncertainty as a reason not to sell. Inventory should continue to increase, but buyers shouldn’t anticipate a major jump, either.

3. Home prices will remain high, for now

Since inventory isn’t expected to pick up all that much during the second part of the year, home prices are likely to remain elevated. That means many buyers — first-timer buyers in particular — are apt to struggle to break into the market, especially with the higher interest rates.

Challenging times, but NOT impossible, for buyers

Buying a home may not be super easy at any point in 2022 — especially if these predictions hold. However, the GOOD NEWS is that things have slowed somewhat, inventory has gone up a bit, and buyers are finding it easier to get their dream home under contract, since the frenzy has slowed considerably since last year.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mortgage rates will probably remain elevated.
• Listings will come on market at higher rate, but still only modestly.
• Home values may remain high.

Happy New Year! I hope that 2022 is off to a wonderful start for you and your family! Do you have plans to buy a new home this year? If so, you’re probably thinking about and saving for a down payment… but how much do you need? There are many loan options, and you may not need 20%.

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Conventional Loans

Have you heard of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? These are the companies that provide conventional home loans. If your credit score is in good shape, you’ll only need to put 3% down on your new home.

FHA Loans

Are you a first-time homebuyer? Then, an FHA loan might be a good option for you. Generally, you could put as little as 3.5% down.

VA Loans

If you’re a veteran or currently active military, your service is appreciated. Getting a VA loan doesn’t require a down payment.

USDA Loans

USDA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development Program. These loans are for rural and suburban homebuyers. Check with your lender for income and loan requirements if you feel this might be the right loan for you.

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That’s just a brief idea of the loans that allow you to save a little cash upfront. Of course, a mortgage professional will help to find the best option for you. I work with incredible lenders that can help. If you’re ready, give me a call or text. I’d be happy to help you with your move!

~ Patti Crowley – Realty One Group – 480.286.6400

Like many industries in the U.S., the coronavirus pandemic shook real estate to its core, flipping markets upside down and changing the way developers, designers and especially Realtors conduct business. Even homeowners had to adapt, from the way they configured their own spaces, to where and when they bought certain properties. I know that for me personally, 2020 and 2021 definitely have had a dramatic impact on the way I view and practice real estate.

Despite the pandemic, however, sales continued to move forward. Realtors learned to lean into technology to show properties and seal deals. I learned how to conduct effective home tours through the use of FaceTime, Facebook Live, & virtual open houses.

On a much broader scale, America’s great pandemic migration has the potential to re-shuffle the essential demographic and economic balance of America for the next generation. Realtors, investors, and politicians should be paying close attention. Although we have always seen people from the Northeast, especially, move to the south and west, seeking warmer climates, they are now adding to their list of prerequisites areas which they view as safer, smaller, stabler, lower taxes, less regulation, and fewer lockdowns. These individuals have a lot more to consider these days.

“Real estate markets have undergone noticeable shifts since the start of the coronavirus pandemic,” George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com states. “In the wake of the lockdowns in March, Americans discovered that existing homes were not adequate for the new work, teach, exercise, cook and live at home reality. Based on realtor.com surveys of consumers, we learned that home shoppers are looking for more space, quieter neighborhoods, home offices, newer kitchens and access to the outdoors, traits which have revived a strong interest in the suburbs and smaller metro areas.” So, what about those that didn’t have the ability or desire to move? Well, interestingly enough, many of them learned to fall in love with their homes all over again, or gave them a much needed freshening up!

I’m asked all the time what the market is like. It is now, and has been since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, a true seller’s market. Page-per-property views on real estate platforms like Realtor.com and Zillow are up over 50% year-over-year almost everywhere, inventory across the U.S. has been dwindling along with days on market and the gap between list-to-sale price. Traditional buyers struggle to win bidding wars against iBuyers and cash investors.

Regardless of the stats that may seem dismal to the average buyer, purchasing a home is not impossible. Buyers need to ensure they are working with a skilled and patient Realtor who knows the market well. They may need to add incentives to their purchase offer, including things such as waiving appraisal or inspection, non-refundable earnest money, quick close, or even post-close possession.

This market appears to be here to stay for awhile. I know that I, for one, am buckling up and ready for whatever 2022 has to bring! Real estate continues to be one of the best investments a person will ever make.

Happy New Year to All!

~ Patti Crowley – Realty One Group – 480.286.6400

Over the past month, I’ve attended many holiday parties. Talking with party guests, once they find out I am a Realtor, the first thing they ask is, “When will this crazy market change?” or “Will there be another crash?!” My first response is usually, “Ah, if only I had a crystal ball!”

I don’t have that crystal ball, but I can tell them what I’ve learned. What I have found is that most economists are in agreement that there will probably be at least another three to five years of growth across the U.S. And although this year will end strong, our inventory still remains in very short supply all across the country. There are many factors impacting that, but key among them is the increased number of people entering the housing market.

According to Gary Nelson of Realty Executives and Arizona REALTORS 2022 president, although builders are responding to the demand and putting out more product, “the U.S. failed to adequately prepare for the Millennial generation entering the housing market and we are dreadfully low on inventory as a result.”

“Here in Arizona, as people move in and out of the area and we see more and more of the Baby Boomer generation retiring, our hope is that primary homes, investment properties and vacation homes will slowly enter the market.”

Also, adding to the mix are the influx of iBuyers (instant buyers), purchasing residential properties directly from private sellers, bypassing the professional Realtor, and often paying cash at a higher price than market value.

Eric Gibbs, Arizona REALTORS 2022 president-elect, says that these iBuyers will continue to be a threat in the coming year. He states, “iBuyers may drive up the prices in certain communities, making it difficult for some buyers to qualify for a loan.”

Determining where the real estate market is going from here can be difficult. In addition, some assumptions should be made, including that there is no unforeseen economic disaster in the next several years.

“The U.S. real estate market survived 9/11 and continues to weather the COVID-19 impacts,” said Nelson. “The only negative effect we have seen in real estate markets in the past 30 or so years is the Great Recession which lasted from 2007 through 2011.”

Personally, I continue to be optimistic. With the way things are going in this country, people continue moving from state to state. There will always be a demand. I look forward to the leveling of sales prices, increasing buyers’ ability to find and purchase their dream home.

Please reach out to me anytime if I can be of assistance to you!

~ Patti Crowley – Realty One Group – 480.286.6400